This varies across the country, but indicates strong production and stronger production as the calendar moves into spring flush in a month or so.
Winter weather for the most part has been good for milk production. The New England states have been dealing with substantial snow storms resulting in delays in farm gate milk pick up as well as delivery to retail outlets.
However, impact has been minimal and has amounted to only delays. California continues to deal with drought and the concern for water this year. Recent snow measurements were taken in the mountains around the state with disappointing results.
The current level is about 25 percent of what the long-term average is for this time of year. Rainfall will be critical over the next month to help the upcoming year.
For the week ending Feb. 13, Cheddar blocks closed at $1.53, down 0.50 cents with no loads traded. Barrels settled at $1.4850, up 0.25 cents with two loads traded.
Butter closed at $1.72, down 7.50 cents with 35 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk price increased 5.0 cents, closing at $1.15 with 44 loads traded.
2015 price estimates
U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates milk production this year to total 211.5 billion pounds according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report.
This is a reduction of 200 million pounds from their January estimate, but is still 5.5 billion pounds higher than 2014.
Beginning commercial supply on a fat basis was reduced 300 million pounds to 11.0 billion pounds. Commercial exports on a fat basis were left unchanged at 11.1 billion pounds which would be a reduction of 1.4 billion pounds from 2014.
Commercial stocks on a skim solids basis were unchanged at 13.1 billion pounds, unchanged from last month but up 1.6 billion pounds from 2014.
Exports on a skim-solids basis were raised 400 million pounds to 38.0 billion pounds, down 1.2 billion pounds from last year.
USDA raised their estimate of Class III price by 10 cents on the low end of the previous range which kept the average price basically unchanged at $16.65.
Class IV was reduced 55 cents to an estimated average of $15.50. The All-milk price estimate was lowered 40 cents to average $17.75.
USDA left the average cheese price unchanged at $1.63 per pound. Dry whey price was raised a penny to 57.50 cents.
USDA increased butter price 5 cents to an average of $1.7050 this year. Nonfat dry milk price was reduced 8.50 cents from last month to now average $1.2150 per pound.
Milk sales decline
Fluid milk sales in December declined 1.2 percent overall. Conventional sales declined 1.5 percent.
Whole milk sales increased 1.6 percent; flavored while milk increased 0.5 percent; reduced fat milk declined 6.2 percent; low fat milk sales increased 8.7 percent; fat-free skim milk declined 9.4 percent; flavored fat-reduced milk increased 4.4 percent; and buttermilk sales increased 10.0 percent.
Total organic milk sales increased 5.7 percent. Organic whole milk sales jumped 23.2 percent; organic reduced fat declined 9.5 percent; organic low fat increased 2.6 percent; organic fat-free skim sales declined 7.9 percent; and organic flavored fat-reduced sales jumped 106.1 percent.
When the volume is calculated together it shows the overall decline of 1.2 percent. Total fluid milk sales for 2014 showed a decline of 3.0 percent.
Agricultural Marketing Service prices
For the week ending Feb. 7, Agricultural Marketing Service prices were mixed. Prices for 40-pound cheddar blocks declined 1.8 cents to $1.54. The price for 500-pound barrels, adjusted to 38 percent moisture, averaged $1.52, up 0.6 cents.
USDA grade AA butter averaged $1.63 for the week, up 6.5 cents. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.02, up 4.7 cents. Dry whey averaged 56.0 cents, down 1.8 cents.
Source: Agriview