Arable crops
For the marketing year 2014/15, exports are projected to increase, reaching a new record at 44.3 million tonnes (close to 2% more than in the previous marketing year).
The EU could therefore increase its trade surplus to 31.6 million tonnes (compared to 24.3 in 2013/14).
For the first six months of the marketing year 2014/15, the EU exported 15.4 million tonnes of wheat (0.7 million tonnes more than previous record in 2013/14). Main wheat export destinations were North-Africa (Algeria, Morocco, Egypt) and the Middle-East (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iran).
By contrast, durum wheat is mainly imported (2.2 million tonnes) from Canada (80%), the US and Mexico.
Dairy
In 2015, the first year without quota, EU milk deliveries are expected to increase moderately, by around 1%. Further supply increase can be expected, especially in Ireland (+4.2%) where the number of dairy cows remains significantly higher than the year before according to the December livestock survey. Other countries that saw an increase in the number of dairy cows and are therefore expected to increase supply are The Netherlands (+0.8%) and Germany (+0.7%).
Butter production in the EU is estimated at 2.2 million tonnes in 2014, close to 4% above 2013. The market for dairy-fat has done relatively well despite the higher availabilities and the halt of exports to Russia.
Exports were up 18%, especially to Saudi Arabia, the US, Egypt, Morocco and Japan.
The European Commission predicts that the EU could take higher shares of these markets because of the lack of competitiveness and supply in the US where dairy-fat is increasingly used for cheese and yoghurt production. In 2014, US butter production and exports declined respectively by 2% and close to 30% compared to 2013. In 2015, the expected further contraction in the US could allow for higher EU exports in a context of higher supply.
EU cheese production increased by 1.8% in 2014 and reached 9.8 million tonnes. The main driver of this development has been the sustained domestic use.
Meat
The EU Commission report says that the EU suckler cow herd is increasing.
While the May-June livestock survey 2014 gave a first indication of the stabilisation of the EU suckler cow herd, the December survey showed an increase by 1.3% compared to 2013.
The main factors driving herd change at EU level are said to be competition between beef and milk production for land and in terms of profitability, the demand for beef and the implementation of the voluntary coupled support in the beef sector under the new CAP.
In 2014, total EU beef production is estimated 2.1% above 2013, after several years of decline. This development is partly driven by the increase in the number of dairy cows and the consecutive higher availability of bovine animals.
In 2015, total beef production could further increase by close to 2%, as the EU production capacity has risen.
Source: Farmers Journall