Dairy price slump hits trade figures

New Zealand exported more than it imported in May, leading to a better than expected $350 million trade surplus in the month.
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It was the fifth monthly surplus in a row.
But exports in May fell about 5 per cent on a year ago, down to $4.36 billion.
Milk powder, butter, and cheese exports led the fall, down 28 per cent on the same month last year.
That reflected the dive in exports to China, down more than 20 per cent on May last year.
The average market forecast was for a monthly trade deficit of $100 million, but imports came in lower than expected with less oil brought into the country. Economists said even with cheaper world fuel prices earlier in the year, imports were weak.
However, the continued slump in world dairy prices is still hitting overall trade figures, with an annual shortfall of $2.6 billion according to Statistics NZ figures. The annual trade balance was in a $1.3 billion surplus just a year ago.
And with export returns likely to weaken in coming months, the trade deficit is expected to get worse, economists said, pushing out the current account deficit, too. The 30 per cent plunge in GlobalDairyTrade auction prices since early this year was expected to see dairy export returns keep falling in the months ahead.
ANZ Bank economists said a lower dollar, trading at just under US69c on Friday, would eventually help restore export earnings,»but a difficult period lies ahead for parts of the sector». The Reserve Bank was expected to keep cutting interest rates, next month and in December, despite the recent fall in the currency, ANZ said.
Infometrics economists said the recent poor results at the GlobalDairyTrade auctions and signs of high world milk supplies suggested that any recovery in dairy prices was «some time off».
There would be some offset from the sharp fall in the New Zealand dollar, but Infometrics still expected the farmgate price for the 2015/16 season to end up at $4/80 a kg.
While dairy exports to China are down sharply, exports to the United States boomed, up almost 50 per cent on May last year on the back of a big lift in beef sales.
There was also a big fall in crude oil exports from New Zealand, but that was partly because of the timing of shipments and partly from lower prices.
Bank of New Zealand economists said the overall export volumes of meat, kiwifruit, apples wine and seafood were «solidly up» on May last year.
Kiwifruit exports have picked up as volumes improved after a recovery from the past PSA vine disease.
The better than expected trade figures for May would be positive for the overall current account, which would move out to about 3.7 per cent of GDP in the June year, only slightly worse than in the March year. That would dampen concerns that the deficit could gallop towards 7 per cent of GDP, as predicted by the Reserve Bank recently. Instead the current account deficit would peak around 5 per cent of GDP, BNZ said.
xports:
$4.36 billion, down $214m from May last year, a fall of 4.7 per cent.
Milk powder, butter, and cheese exports  fell $346 million (28 per cent down on May last year) to $911 million.
Fruit exports rose $107 million (up 32 per cent) to $445 million, the highest monthly value ever as kiwifruit sales jumped.
Meat and offal rose $91 million (up 16 per cent).
Beef exports drove the rise, up $98 million ( up 41 percent).
Crude oil exports fell $135 million (down 70 per cent)
Key export markets:
China:  NZ exports down $191 million (22 per cent), led by whole milk powder, down $153 million, with quantity falling 60 per cent on May last year.
United States: NZ exports up $194 million (49 per cent), led by frozen beef, up $73 million (68 per cent).
Imports:
$4.01 billion, down $300 million from May last year, a fall of 7.0 per cent.
Intermediate goods fell $259 million (14 per cent), due to crude oil, down $206 million (43 per cent).
Trade balance:
May trade surplus: $350m (much better than average forecast of $100m deficit)
Annual goods trade deficit: $2.6 billion. (year ended May 2015)
 
Source: Stuff
 

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Así lo expresó Domingo Possetto, secretario de la seccional Rafaela, quien además, afirmó que a los productores «habitualmente los ignoran los gobiernos». Además, reconoció la labor de los empresarios de las firmas locales y aseguró que están «esperanzados» con la negociación entre SanCor y Adecoagro.

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