Total exports in November were down almost 10 per cent on the same month last year to $4 billion.
Exports are expected to worsen in the coming year as lower dairy prices hit total sales overseas. And a key risk for exports next year is if the Chinese economy keeps slowing down, economists said.
Exports to China peaked at the end of last year, but are now down more than 40 per cent from that level, back to levels seen two years ago.
Statistics NZ figures out today showed imported dipped just 1.3 per cent to $4.2 b in November.
That left a trade deficit of $213 million, which was the smallest November deficit since 2010.
ASB Bank economists said the monthly deficit was smaller than expected, with imports weaker than anticipated, though that may be a temporary blip.
Market forecasts suggested the November deficit would be about $575m and ASB expected a shortfall of $900m.
For November, dairy exports collapsed 27 per cent compared with the same month a year ago, with the volume down just 3.1 per cent. That reflected the record high levels of exports to China a year ago. But since a peak early this year, dairy auction prices have collapsed by more than 50 per cent.
A 20 per cent rise in meat exports in November helped offset the fall, led by a price-driven rise in frozen beef.
Seasonally adjusted, exports were actuallyy up 2.5 per cent between October and November. That reflected a 10 per cent gain in meat exports in the month as both prices and volumes improved. World beef prices are high, with a shortage of supplies.
Seasonally adjusted dairy export prices were down between October and November, but volumes rose 4 per cent because of higher milk production on the back of good spring grass growth.
ASB said exports were in line with expectations, but imports were down more than usual in November, dropping about 7.7 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis. But that appeared to reflect changes in imports of goods that tend to rise and fall rapidly, so the softness in imports was likely to be short-lived, ASB said. For example, oil imports were about $400m in November, down from an average of $670m in the previous two months.
«The fall in export values reflects a return from the high values late last year, led by China,» Statistics NZ international statistics manager Jason Attewell said.
«The trend for exports to China is 42 per cent lower than the series peak in December 2013, and is now at similar levels to 2012.»
Source: Stuff