Although rainfall for the Western District and both western and eastern Gippsland was below average for September and October, a mild spring has made a huge impact on the production of pastures and hay prices in southern Victoria.
Pasture growth in the regions has been exceptional, surprising many. Silage has been cut and stacked in many areas and hay baling is in full swing.
The volume of windrows and the number of paddocks being cut for hay and silage this season mean that the scale of fodder production is impressive.
Paddocks between Hamilton and Portland sown to clover and ryegrass pastures and shut up from stock for seven weeks have been yielding between 4 tonnes a hectare to 5 tonnes/ha.
Further east near Cobden similar paddocks with generous fertiliser applications have been yielding as high as 8.2 tonnes/ha.
The continuing rain last week has seen another 15mm to 30mm of rain to bring the
November totals to between 40mm and 50mm.
The apparent lack of alignment between rainfall and fodder yields is puzzling.
This has led some to speculate that the pasture stands were established during some testing times with decile one rainfall during September for the Western District.
Accordingly these conditions have hardened plants, pushing roots further into the soil to find moisture.
Regardless of the agronomy, some mixed farmers who operate livestock expect they will have surplus hay, which is a dramatic turnaround.
During winter the southern hay market, like the rest of Victoria and the Riverina, was influenced by the northern demand. NSW plated trucks were seen on Western District roads picking up round and large square bales of pasture hay for their stock in Central West NSW.
Those trucks are now busy transporting hay from within their own farms or from neighbouring farms in NSW.
Even the demand from beef feedlots in northern NSW and southeast Queensland are finding sufficient fodder from farms within 200km.
Very little pasture hay is trading in southern Victoria but sellers believe they may need to discount their hay by $100 a tonne and offer their hay as low as $200 a tonne ex farm to gain the interest of potential buyers.
This is a stark contrast to the sellers of clover and rye pasture hay in the Victorian Mallee who are asking for $330 a tonne ex farm.
Hay buyers are showing a strong preference for cereal hay and sellers are prepared to compete a little more on
price.
While the objective of many Mallee and Wimmera hay sellers has been to achieve $300 a tonne, wheaten hay has been selling for $260 to $320 a tonne ex farm in the past week.