The report presents USDA’s initial assessment of US and world crop supply and demand prospects and US prices for 2017/18, and also presents the first calendar-year 2018 projections of US dairy, livestock and poultry products.
Due to spring planting still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and being several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are “highly tentative,” USDA said.
Forecast milk production in 2017 is lowered from last month on slower growth in milk per cow, while milk production for 2018 is forecast higher on stronger milk prices and moderate feed prices.
USDA now expects 2017 milk production to reach a record 216.9 billion pounds, down 400 million pounds from last month’s forecast but up 4.5 billion pounds from 2016’s record output. And 2018 milk production is projected to reach 222.0 billion pounds.
For 2017, fat basis imports are lowered from last month while skim-solids basis imports are increased. Commercial exports are forecast higher for both fat and skim-solids bases.
For 2018, commercial US dairy exports on fat and skimsolids bases are forecast higher on stronger global demand. Fat basis imports are forecast modestly higher in 2018 while skim-solids basis imports are forecast lower relative to 2017.
Cheese and dry whey price forecasts for 2017 are unchanged from last month, while nonfat dry milk price forecasts are raised and butter is lowered. For 2018, cheese and nonfat dry milk prices are forecast higher than 2017, but butter and dry whey prices are forecast lower.
Specific USDA product price forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are:
Cheese: $1.6000 to $1.6500 per pound for 2017 and $1.6400 to $1.7400 per pound for 2018.
Butter: $2.1150 to $2.1950 per pound for 2017 and $2.0450 to $2.175 per pound for 2018.
Dry whey: 49.0 to 52.0 cents per pound for 2017 and 47.50 to 50.50 cents per pound for 2018.
Nonfat dry milk: 87.50 to 91.50 cents per pound for 2017 and 91.50 to 98.50 cents per pound for 2018.
For 2017, USDA’s Class III price forecast is unchanged, at $16.10 to $16.60 per hundredweight, while the Class IV price forecast is higher than last month, at $14.35 to $14.95 per hundred. The all milk price is forecast at $17.35 to $17.85 per hundred.
Milk price forecasts for 2018 are: Class III, $16.40 to $17.40 per hundred; Class IV, $14.40 to $15.50 per hundred; and all milk, $17.55 to $18.55 per hundred.
USDA’s season-average farm price for corn is projected at $3.00 to $3.80 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint from 2016/17. The 2017/18 season-average soybean price range is forecast at $8.30 to $10.30 per bushel compared with $9.55 per bushel in 2016/17. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 to $335 per short ton, compared with $320 per ton for 2016/17.
Source: Cheese Reporter
Link: http://npaper-wehaa.com/cheese-reporter/2017/05/s2/#?article=2924412