Yesterday, the Aussie markets hit a 5 year high, as did the NASDAQ which hit a 13 year high, and the NZX10 approaching the 5,000 level for the first time.
In late trade today, the Dow is up strongly, currently at 15,300, with markets now sure the US Fed will start it’s tapering in a modest way. Gold is down, oil is stable, and UST 10 year yields are 2.95%, up only slightly after a big primary auction, but still below the psychological 3% level.
And China is growing again at the rate its policy makers need. A late-summer push by China to stock up on iron ore has helped push shipping rates to their highest in more than a year, sending the Baltic Dry index to its highest since January 2012. Sceptics may be right to point out that this is minor in a 10 year view, but it is still up 50% since August, more than doubled since the start of the year.
China is demanding more imports and that is good for Australia and New Zealand.. It is also shipping more exports because the world is buying.
This confidence is reflected in a major restatement of ongoing reform plans by the Chinese Premier overnight. He said they will overhaul state-dominated financial institutions, liberalise interest rates and eventually make the Chinese currency freely convertible.
Yesterday’s announcement by Fonterra shows one way we can benefit.
Announcements today will be focused on the RBNZ in Wellington. Bernard Hickey will have full coverage of Governor Wheeler’s Monetary Policy Statement at 9am, and his testimony this afternoon at Parliament.
Keep an eye on the Auckland house-building plans. On top of Christchurch, the size of the ambition is likely to be highly inflationary, distorting internal demand. It will also need huge new growth in housing credit. The RBNZ won’t be able to ignore it if the Government and Auckland Council look like they will achieve their targets.
We will also get the August REINZ house price and sales data today.
The NZ dollar is starting today at 80.8 USc, 86.6 AUc, and the TWI is at 75.9.
Source: Interest
